Pre-tourney Rankings
San Diego St.
Mountain West
2013-14
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.7#29
Expected Predictive Rating+17.4#7
Pace64.2#270
Improvement-0.9#215

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#117
Improvement-1.2#237

Defense
Total Defense+10.4#6
Improvement+0.3#153
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.2% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 33.9% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 94.5% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.8% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.8% n/a n/a
Average Seed 4.9 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round99.8% n/a n/a
Second Round67.5% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen31.0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight11.5% n/a n/a
Final Four4.4% n/a n/a
Championship Game1.5% n/a n/a
National Champion0.5% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 5 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2013 268   UC Riverside W 77-41 97%     1 - 0 +27.4 -4.3 +29.2
  Nov 14, 2013 2   Arizona L 60-69 33%     1 - 1 +8.3 +3.3 +4.5
  Nov 28, 2013 194   College of Charleston W 72-52 91%     2 - 1 +18.3 +12.1 +8.8
  Nov 29, 2013 9   Creighton W 86-80 35%     3 - 1 +22.7 +15.1 +7.6
  Dec 01, 2013 61   Marquette W 67-59 65%     4 - 1 +16.6 +2.4 +14.7
  Dec 05, 2013 133   @ San Diego W 65-64 77%     5 - 1 +6.1 -3.9 +10.0
  Dec 08, 2013 91   Washington W 70-63 82%     6 - 1 +10.0 -3.1 +13.2
  Dec 18, 2013 347   Southern Utah W 76-39 99%     7 - 1 +17.7 +4.5 +17.4
  Dec 21, 2013 315   McNeese St. W 65-36 98%     8 - 1 +16.1 -13.2 +29.7
  Jan 01, 2014 132   @ Colorado St. W 71-61 76%     9 - 1 1 - 0 +15.2 +3.4 +12.5
  Jan 05, 2014 4   @ Kansas W 61-57 23%     10 - 1 +24.3 -0.4 +24.9
  Jan 08, 2014 68   Boise St. W 69-66 78%     11 - 1 2 - 0 +7.5 -0.3 +8.0
  Jan 12, 2014 225   @ Air Force W 79-72 89%     12 - 1 3 - 0 +6.2 +8.5 -2.2
  Jan 15, 2014 123   Fresno St. W 68-60 87%     13 - 1 4 - 0 +8.3 -2.8 +11.5
  Jan 18, 2014 77   UNLV W 63-52 80%     14 - 1 5 - 0 +14.9 -8.3 +23.0
  Jan 22, 2014 284   @ San Jose St. W 75-50 94%     15 - 1 6 - 0 +20.4 +1.4 +18.2
  Jan 25, 2014 118   @ Utah St. W 74-69 OT 74%     16 - 1 7 - 0 +11.2 +4.9 +6.5
  Feb 01, 2014 132   Colorado St. W 65-56 89%     17 - 1 8 - 0 +8.6 -7.8 +16.8
  Feb 05, 2014 68   @ Boise St. W 67-65 60%     18 - 1 9 - 0 +12.1 +7.6 +4.9
  Feb 08, 2014 139   Nevada W 73-58 89%     19 - 1 10 - 0 +14.1 +12.9 +4.3
  Feb 11, 2014 109   @ Wyoming L 62-68 72%     19 - 2 10 - 1 +0.7 +2.2 -2.3
  Feb 15, 2014 225   Air Force W 64-56 95%     20 - 2 11 - 1 +1.6 +1.6 +1.6
  Feb 18, 2014 118   Utah St. W 60-45 87%     21 - 2 12 - 1 +15.6 -7.1 +24.6
  Feb 22, 2014 31   @ New Mexico L 44-58 43%     21 - 3 12 - 2 +0.6 -15.5 +14.1
  Feb 25, 2014 284   San Jose St. W 90-64 97%     22 - 3 13 - 2 +15.8 +7.4 +5.9
  Mar 01, 2014 123   @ Fresno St. W 82-67 75%     23 - 3 14 - 2 +20.9 +21.3 +1.7
  Mar 05, 2014 77   @ UNLV W 73-64 62%     24 - 3 15 - 2 +18.5 +3.8 +14.4
  Mar 08, 2014 31   New Mexico W 51-48 64%     25 - 3 16 - 2 +12.1 -7.2 +19.8
  Mar 13, 2014 118   Utah St. W 73-39 81%     26 - 3 +37.4 +13.2 +30.4
  Mar 14, 2014 77   UNLV W 59-51 72%     27 - 3 +14.7 -2.1 +17.8
  Mar 15, 2014 31   New Mexico L 58-64 53%     27 - 4 +5.9 +1.4 +3.3
Projected Record 27.0 - 4.0 16.0 - 2.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 100.0    100.0
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 99.8% 99.8% 4.9 0.0 0.2 4.6 29.1 40.9 19.7 4.9 0.4 0.0 0.2 99.8%
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.8% 0.0% 99.8% 4.9 0.0 0.2 4.6 29.1 40.9 19.7 4.9 0.4 0.0 0.2 99.8%